This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and export managers whose primary concern is the world market for cigars, cheroots, and cigarillos made with tobacco. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for cigars, cheroots, and cigarillos made with tobacco for those firms serving the world via exports and foreign direct investment. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, this report begins by summarizing the world exporter's market for cigars, cheroots, and cigarillos made with tobacco. The total level of exports on a worldwide basis is based on a model that aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market. These shares lead to a volume of import values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the shares that competitors (countries serving that market) are likely to receive this year. From these figures, world rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information for strategic planning purposes.
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This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for chewing and smoking tobacco across the regions of Greater China, including provinces, autonomous regions (Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang - Tibet), municipalities (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau), and Taiwan (all hereafter referred to as "regions"). Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,100 cities in Greater China. For each major city in question, the percent share the city is of the region and of Greater China is reported. Each major city is defined as an area of "economic population", as opposed to the demographic population within a legal geographic boundary. For many cities, the economic population is much larger that the population within the city limits; this is especially true for the cities of the Western regions. For the coastal regions, cities which are close to other major cities or which represent, by themselves, a high percent of the regional population, actual city-level population is closer to the economic population (e.g. in Beijing). Based on this "economic" definition of population, comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city's marketing and distribution value vis-a-vis others. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners approaching the market in the Middle East face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying stripped and stemmed tobacco to the Middle East? What is the dollar value of these imports? How much do the imports of stripped and stemmed tobacco vary from one country to another in the Middle East? Do exporters serving the market in the Middle East have similar market shares across the importing countries? On the supply side, the Middle East also sells to the international market of stripped and stemmed tobacco. Which countries in the Middle East supply the most exports of stripped and stemmed tobacco? Which countries are buying their exports? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for stripped and stemmed tobacco in the Middle East. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for stripped and stemmed tobacco for those countries serving the Middle East via exports or supplying from the Middle East via imports. We do so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.
This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a "borderless world", cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market. In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "aged and not aged leaf stemmed tobacco packed for use in manufacturing interplant transfers" for the year 2009. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales.
This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for filter-tip tobacco and non-tobacco cigarettes across the states, union territories and cities of India. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across over 5,100 cities in India. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it's state or union territory and of India as a whole is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-a-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each state or union territory and city, latent demand estimates are created for filter-tip tobacco and non-tobacco cigarettes. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
"[Reid] develops an approach to globalization and health that goes beyond simplistic dichotomies -- such as the puritanism of the United States in contrast with the more libertine cultures of other countries -- and he also eschews the equally simplistic view that the world is becoming homogenized." -- David J. Hess, Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteA tangible aspect of living, working, and traveling in the 21st century is the experience of moving between smoke-filled and smoke-free environments. In Globalizing Tobacco Control, Roddey Reid examines what lies behind this experience: the revolution in public attitudes and health codes that regulate daily routines and the life of the body. While the gradual replacement of smoking with non-smoking as the social norm is a global phenomenon, it has not followed the same trajectory everywhere. Reid compares anti-smoking campaigns in the United States, France, and Japan for what they reveal about the nature of globalization and liberal arts of government. He explores distinctive national histories of tobacco; evolving global marketing strategies of transnational tobacco corporations; "social marketing" techniques used to tailor public health messages to particular ethnic communities; and the programs of international public health organizations.
